絳

the global economy

Enjoy them while they last.

global director of public policy

The world economy will feel almost healthy in 2018

a sense of widespread wellness will begin to take hold

wages are edging higher and economies are growing almost everywhere

but the year was hardly buoyant.（轻快的；上涨的）

As the recovery settles in, might 2018 set the stage for the next recession?

but that hides a more encouraging reality:

grew at the fastest pace since 2010

by a respectable 2% or so

all of the big economies, developed and emerging, will be moving ahead.

are out of their latest recessions

muster a peppy 5%

will race along at nearly 8%.

Only debt-ridden xxx looks genuinely worrying, but the masters of the Middle Kingdom will still stoke enough demand to push growth to nearly 6%.

has been a pleasant surprise

It endured two recessions in the past decade and survived a near break-up; now it almost has a spring in its step. 

ageing populations and low investment will hold it back

But the new year will start with a feeling not of crisis but of normality

hang over the future of

promises of massive tax cuts

unexciting, but a big improvement from recent slumps(幅度下降, 暴跌). 

xxx have not materialised. 

have also emerged from recessions, 

xxx will be the wild card

finally seems committed to

All of this could still go horribly wrong

So why worry? Why not just enjoy a rare year of synchronised global expansion? The concern begins with history.

If it is any guide (and it often is), the business cycle is coming to an end.

tends to tip into a recession

unwinding the enormous pile of

produce big corrections in

it may be approaching the end.